روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی در منطقه حفاظت شده مانشت و قلارنگ با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره‌‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 هیات علمی دانشگاه ایلام

2 دانشگاه ایلام

3 دانشگاه ساری

چکیده

هدف از این پژوهش پیش‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌بینی و بررسی روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی در منطقه حفاظت شده مانشت و قلارنگ در استان ایلام با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره‌‌‌ای لندست (تصاویر TMسال‌های 1363، 1378 و OLA سال 1393) است. پس از تصحیح هندسی و اتمسفریک در این تصاویر ماهواره‌ای، چهار کاربری زراعت، باغ، مرتع و جنگل در منطقه مورد مطالعه شناسایی شد. برای طبقه‌‌بندی تصاویر ماهواره‌ای از مقایسه روش‌های حداکثر احتمال و نزدیکترین همسایه و برای شناسایی تغییرات کاربری از روش‌های مقایسه بعد از طبقه‌بندی، تفاوت شاخص پوشش گیاهی (NDVI) و تفاوت تجزیه مؤلفه‌های اصلی (PCA) استفاده شد. پیش‌بینی تغییرات کاربری در سال 1403 با استفاده از مدل تلفیقی سلولی خودکار و زنجیره مارکوف انجام شد. به طور کلی طبقه‌بندی تصاویر مورد استفاده با روش حداکثر احتمال صحت بیشتری را نسبت به روش نزدیک‌ترین همسایه ارائه کرده است. براساس نتایج طبقه‌بندی طی دوره 1393-1363 کاهش در سطح اراضی مرتعی و جنگل و افرایش در اراضی باغی و زراعی مشاهده شد. در روش مقایسه پس از طبقه‌بندی بیشترین تغییرات در طی دوره 1378-1363 مربوط به تبدیل جنگل به زراعت، در دوره 1393-1378 مربوط به تبدیل جنگل به مرتع بود. پیش‌بینی تغییرات برای سال 1403 نشان داد که اراضی زراعی 10/1 درصد، باغی 52/0 درصد افزایش و سطح مراتع و جنگل‌ها به ترتیب 76/0 درصد و 86/0 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. براساس نتایج استفاده از تصاویر لندست در تلفیق با مدل مارکوف در مدلسازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی از صحت و دقت بالایی برخوردار است و می‌تواند در تصمیم‌گیری و مدیریت منطقه مؤثر باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Land Use Changes Trends in Manasht - Ghalarang Protected Area Using satellite imagery

نویسندگان [English]

  • nahid jaafarian 2
  • omid karami 3
2 ilam uni
3 Sari University
چکیده [English]

The aim of this study was to predict and investigate land use change trends in Manasht - ghalarang protected area in Ilam province using Landsat satellite imagery (L5 TM-1984, L5TM-1999, L8 OLA-2014). After geometric and atmospheric correction on satellite images, four land uses including agriculture, garden, pasture and forest were identified in the study area. For classification of satellite images used the comparison of maximum likelihood (MLC) and k nearest neighbor (KNN) methods, and for identifying user changes from post-classification comparison methods, the difference of vegetation index (NDVI) and principal component analysis (PCA) were used. Prediction of land use changes in 2024 was performed using the automated fusion cell and Markov chain model. The classification of images used with the MLC method is higher than KNN method. According to the classification results, during the period 1984–2014, decreases in rangelands and forests and increase in gardens and agricultural were observed. In the comparative method after classification most changes happened in period of 1984-1999 were related to forest conversion to agriculture, while in period of 1999-2014 were to forest to pasture. Forecasts of changes for 2024 showed that agricultural land-uses increased by 1.10%, garden by 0.52% and rangelands and forests decreased by 0.76% and 0.86 %, respectively. Based on the results, the use of Landsat images in combination with the Markov model in modeling land use change, had high accuracy and can be effective in decision-making and management of the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Remote Sensing
  • Nearest Neighbors
  • Maximum likelihood
  • Markov Chain
  • Ilam

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 14 اسفند 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 02 خرداد 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 مرداد 1399

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