پهنه بندی و بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آتش‌سوزی جنگل در شهرستان بویراحمد با استفاده از مدل های تابع شواهد قطعی و ماشین بردار پشتیبان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 جنگلداری- دانشکده منابع طبیعی- دانشگاه کشاورز ی و منابع طبیعی ساری

2 دانشیار، گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

3 استادیار، بخش مهندسی منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز،شیراز، ایران

4 استاد، گروه نقشه برداری، دانشکده نقشه‌برداری، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

جهت تعیین الگوی مکانی احتمال آتشسوزی در جنگل‌های شهرستان بویراحمد، از مدلهای تابع شواهد قطعی و ماشین بردار پشتیبان استفاده شد. به این منظور در ابتدا 145 موقعیت آتش‌سوزی گذشته براساس گزارشها، دادههایMODIS و با بررسیهای میدانی با استفاده ازGPS ثبت شد که از این تعداد، 70% برای مدل‌سازی و 30% به‌منظور اعتبارسنجی مدل استفاده گردید. در مرحله بعد 15 عامل (طبقات ارتفاعی، درجه شیب، جهت شیب، شاخص موقعیت توپوگرافی، شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی، انحناء سطح، فاصله از روستا، فاصله از رودخانه، فاصله از جاده، سازندهای زمین شناسی، NDVI، کاربری اراضی، تبخیر و تعرق سالانه، بارندگی سالانه و درجه حرارت سالانه) برای بررسی خطر آتش‌سوزی انتخاب و نقشه‌های آن تهیه شد. بعد از انجام تست ‌هم‌خطی بین متغیرهای مستقل، از مدل‌های تابع شواهد قطعی و ماشین بردار پشتیبان برای ایجاد نقشه پهنه‌بندی آتش‌سوزی استفاده شد. برای مدل‌سازی، مکان‌های آتش‌سوزی رخ داده در گذشته مشخص شد و 70 درصد داده‌های جمع‌آوری شده به‌عنوان داده‌های آموزشی برای مدلسازی و 30 درصد داده‌ها جهت اعتبارسنجی مدل استفاده شد. نتایج مطالعه از طریق نقشه پهنه‌های آتشسوزی نشان داد که مناطق با حساسیت‌های خیلی‌زیاد و زیاد، 40 درصد منطقه را پوشش داده اند. نتایج اعتبارسنجی کارایی مدل های تابع شواهد قطعی بیان‌گر سطح زیر منحنی برابر با 72.2 درصد و ماشین بردار پشتیبان با سطح زیر منحنی 83 درصد بوده و الگوریتم ماشین بردار پشتیبان در منطقه مورد مطالعه توانست احتمال وقوع آتش‌سوزی را بهتر پیش‌بینی کند. از نتایج تحقیق پیش‌رو برای برنامه ریزی و مدیریت خطر آتشسوزی‌های آینده در منطقه مورد مطالعه بهره برد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Zoning and Investigation of Factors Affecting Forest Fire Using Evidential Belief Function Algorithm and Support Vector Machine in Boyer Ahmad City

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mozhgan Bazyar 1
  • J. Oladi Ghadikolaii 2
  • H.R. Pourghasemi 3
  • M.R. Serajyan maralan 4
1 forestry- natrural resorce colege- sari university- sari-iran
چکیده [English]

In order to determine the spatial pattern of the probability of fire in the forests of Boyerahmad city, Belife evidence function models and support vector machines were used. For this purpose, at first 145 past fire positions were reported, MODIS data and field surveys were recorded using GPS, of which 70% were used for modeling and 30% for model validation. Next, 15 factors (altitude, slope gradient, slope direction, topographic position index, topographic moisture index, surface curvature, distance from village, distance from river, distance from road, geological formations, NDVI, land use, evapotranspiration annual, annual rainfall and annual temperature) were selected to assess the fire risk and maps were prepared. After performing a linear test between the independent variables, the Belife evidence function and the support vector machine models were used to create the fire zoning map. For modeling, past fire locations were identified and 70% of the data collected were used as training data for modeling and 30% for model validation. The results of the fire map study showed that areas with very high sensitivity cover 40% of the area. The results of the validation of the performance of the Belife evidence function models showed that the area under the curve was equal to 72.2% and the support vector machine with the area below the curve was 83%.Predication. Results of the current research can be used to plan and manage future fire hazards in the study area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • : Spatial modeling of fire fighting
  • Evidential Belief Function
  • variables
  • Support Vector Machine
  • Boyer Ahmad city

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 15 آذر 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 11 اسفند 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 20 اسفند 1398

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