ارزیابی و پیش‌بینی خشکیدگی جنگل‌های بلوط زاگرس میانی (بخش لرستان) با رویکرد تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس مطالعات مرکز ملی خشکسالی و مدیریت بحران هواشناسی

2 استاد، گروه جغرافیایی طبیعی (اقلیم‌شناسی)، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تربیت معلم شهید رجائی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

پدیده خشکیدگی درختان بلوط در جنگل‌های زاگرس یکی از مشکلات اساسی اکوسیستم این منطقه است. در این پژوهش به ارزیابی و پیش‌بینی خشکیدگی جنگل‌های بلوط زاگرس میانی (بخش لرستان) با رویکرد تغییر اقلیم و با استفاده از شاخص‌های DVI، GEMI، IPVI، MSAVI2، NDVI، EVI، OSAVI، Sarvi2، SR و VHI پرداخته شد. در این راستا برای 110 نقطه از جنگل‌های بلوط لرستان این شاخص‌ها استخراج گردید و درنهایت ماتریسی به ابعاد 110×345 طی دوره 2000 تا 2016 تشکیل شد. سپس برای پیش‌بینی روش‌های فازی و شبکه عصبی ارزیابی شد و هریک که خطای کمتری داشت مبنای پیش‌بینی برای دوره 2017 تا 2030 قرار گرفت. همچنین به‌منظور شناسایی نواحی خشکیدگی از روش‌های تحلیل خوشه‌ای و ممیزی و برای بررسی نوسان‌ها از تحلیل طیفی بهره گرفته شد. نتایج حاصل نشان داد که شاخص‌های خشکیدگی در بیشتر موارد از روند افزایشی برخوردار بوده است. نتایج تحلیل خوشه‌ای نیز نشان داد که خشکیدگی جنگل‌های بلوط در چهار ناحیه (فاقد خشکیدگی، با خشکیدگی نرمال، با خشکیدگی زیاد و با خشکیدگی بسیار زیاد) قابل تقسیم است. بررسی نوسان‌های حاکم بر نواحی خشکیدگی نیز حکایت از وجود چرخه‌های کوتاه‌مدت اغلب 2 تا 4 ساله نوسان‌ها بر شاخص‌های خشکیدگی داشت. ارزیابی شبکه عصبی و روش فازی نیز نشان داد که روش شبکه عصبی روش مناسب‌تری برای پیش‌بینی شاخص‌های خشکیدگی است و نتایج پیش‌بینی بیانگر آن است که در دوره آینده بیشتر شاخص‌های خشکیدگی در منطقه روند افزایشی را تجربه خواهند کرد.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation and Prediction of Decline of Oak Forests in Middle Zagros (Lorestan Section) with a Climate Change Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • hengameh shiravand 1
  • Sh. Khaledi 2
  • S. Behzadi 3
1 Expert of studies National Drought Center and Meteorological Crisis Management
چکیده [English]

The oak trees decline in Zagros forests is one of the main problems of the ecosystem of this region. Therefore, in this research, estimation and prediction of oak forests decline in the middle Zagros (Lorestan section) were performed to evaluate the RS data and decline indices including DVI, GEMI, IPVI, MSAVI2, NDVI, EVI, OSAVI, Sarvi2, SR and VHI. To this end, these indices were extracted using ArcGIS for 110 sites of oak forests. Finally, a matrix of 345 × 110 dimensions during 2001 to 2016 was created. Then, fuzzy and neural network methods were used in the prediction strategy, and the method with less error was considered as the prediction basis for the period 2017-2030. The cluster analysis and the discriminant analysis were also used to identify the decline areas, and spectral analysis was used to investigate the oscillation. The results showed that the decline indices had an increasing trend in the most cases. The results of cluster analysis also revealed that oak forest decline can be divided into four areas (no decline, normal decline, high decline and very high decline areas). Investigating the fluctuations of the dominant areas also indicated short-term cycles of 2 to 4 years fluctuations on drying indices. Neural network evaluation and fuzzy method also demonstrated that neural network method is a more suitable method for predicting decline indices. The prediction results indicated that in the future, most of the decline indices in the region will be increased.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Decline
  • Neural Network
  • Oak
  • Oscillation
  • Remote Sensing
  • Zagros

مراجع

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 12 بهمن 1397
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 27 اردیبهشت 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 04 خرداد 1398

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