ارزیابی و پیش‌بینی خشکیدگی جنگل‌های بلوط زاگرس میانی (بخش لرستان) با رویکرد تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس مطالعات مرکز ملی خشکسالی و مدیریت بحران هواشناسی

2 استاد، گروه جغرافیایی طبیعی (اقلیم‌شناسی)، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تربیت معلم شهید رجائی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

پدیده خشکیدگی درختان بلوط در جنگل‌های زاگرس یکی از مشکلات اساسی اکوسیستم این منطقه است. در این پژوهش به ارزیابی و پیش‌بینی خشکیدگی جنگل‌های بلوط زاگرس میانی (بخش لرستان) با رویکرد تغییر اقلیم و با استفاده از شاخص‌های DVI، GEMI، IPVI، MSAVI2، NDVI، EVI، OSAVI، Sarvi2، SR و VHI پرداخته شد. در این راستا برای 110 نقطه از جنگل‌های بلوط لرستان این شاخص‌ها استخراج گردید و درنهایت ماتریسی به ابعاد 110×345 طی دوره 2000 تا 2016 تشکیل شد. سپس برای پیش‌بینی روش‌های فازی و شبکه عصبی ارزیابی شد و هریک که خطای کمتری داشت مبنای پیش‌بینی برای دوره 2017 تا 2030 قرار گرفت. همچنین به‌منظور شناسایی نواحی خشکیدگی از روش‌های تحلیل خوشه‌ای و ممیزی و برای بررسی نوسان‌ها از تحلیل طیفی بهره گرفته شد. نتایج حاصل نشان داد که شاخص‌های خشکیدگی در بیشتر موارد از روند افزایشی برخوردار بوده است. نتایج تحلیل خوشه‌ای نیز نشان داد که خشکیدگی جنگل‌های بلوط در چهار ناحیه (فاقد خشکیدگی، با خشکیدگی نرمال، با خشکیدگی زیاد و با خشکیدگی بسیار زیاد) قابل تقسیم است. بررسی نوسان‌های حاکم بر نواحی خشکیدگی نیز حکایت از وجود چرخه‌های کوتاه‌مدت اغلب 2 تا 4 ساله نوسان‌ها بر شاخص‌های خشکیدگی داشت. ارزیابی شبکه عصبی و روش فازی نیز نشان داد که روش شبکه عصبی روش مناسب‌تری برای پیش‌بینی شاخص‌های خشکیدگی است و نتایج پیش‌بینی بیانگر آن است که در دوره آینده بیشتر شاخص‌های خشکیدگی در منطقه روند افزایشی را تجربه خواهند کرد.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation and Prediction of Decline of Oak Forests in Middle Zagros (Lorestan Section) with a Climate Change Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • hengameh shiravand 1
  • Sh. Khaledi 2
  • S. Behzadi 3
1 Expert of studies National Drought Center and Meteorological Crisis Management
چکیده [English]

The oak trees decline in Zagros forests is one of the main problems of the ecosystem of this region. Therefore, in this research, estimation and prediction of oak forests decline in the middle Zagros (Lorestan section) were performed to evaluate the RS data and decline indices including DVI, GEMI, IPVI, MSAVI2, NDVI, EVI, OSAVI, Sarvi2, SR and VHI. To this end, these indices were extracted using ArcGIS for 110 sites of oak forests. Finally, a matrix of 345 × 110 dimensions during 2001 to 2016 was created. Then, fuzzy and neural network methods were used in the prediction strategy, and the method with less error was considered as the prediction basis for the period 2017-2030. The cluster analysis and the discriminant analysis were also used to identify the decline areas, and spectral analysis was used to investigate the oscillation. The results showed that the decline indices had an increasing trend in the most cases. The results of cluster analysis also revealed that oak forest decline can be divided into four areas (no decline, normal decline, high decline and very high decline areas). Investigating the fluctuations of the dominant areas also indicated short-term cycles of 2 to 4 years fluctuations on drying indices. Neural network evaluation and fuzzy method also demonstrated that neural network method is a more suitable method for predicting decline indices. The prediction results indicated that in the future, most of the decline indices in the region will be increased.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • decline
  • Neural network
  • Oak
  • Oscillation
  • Remote Sensing
  • Zagros
-Alavi Panah, S.K., Ehsani, A.H., Matinfar, H., Rafiei Imam, A. and Amiri, R. 2006. Comparison of the Information Content of TM and + ETM Sensor Sections in Iran's Desert and Urban Environment, Researches Geographical, 56: 64-47 (In Persian).
-Alijani, B., Bayat, A., Doskamyan, M. and Balyani, Y. 2017. Spectral analysis of time series of Iranian annual rainfall. Journal of Geography and Planning, 57: 236-217 (In Persian).
-Amir Ahmadi, B., Zolfaghari, R. and Mirzaie Gharehlar, M.R. 2016. The Relationship Between Drying of Iranian Oak Trees with Environmental Factors and Forestry Properties in Dana Protected Forest. Iranian Forest Ecology, 6: 27-19 (In Persian).
-Asakereh, H. 2009. Spectral analysis of time series of annual temperature in Tabriz. Geographic Research, 93: 50-33 (In Persian).
-Asakereh, H., Dostkamian, M. and Ghaemi, H. 2015. Analysis of variations in rainfall irregularities and water cycles of barley Iran. Natural Geography Research, 4: 444-435 (In Persian).
-Attar-e Roshan, S., Rajai, A.H. and Bozorgmeher, N. 2016. Investigating the Effect of Zagros on the Fading Phenomenon of Oak forests in Zagros Province of Khuzestan Province. First International Conference on Dust, Ahvaz, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz (In Persian).
-Dervishzadeh, R., Metcanan, A.A., Hosseini Asl, A. and Ebrahimi Khosfi, M. 2013. Estimation of vegetation percentage of Central Iran dry area using satellite imagery (Case study: Shitoor basin, Bafgh). Drybum, 1: 38-25 (In Persian).
-Doskamian, M. and Mir Mousavi, S.H. 2016. Examination and Analysis of Iran's Extreme Rainfall Threshold Cluster. Geography and Development Quarterly, 41:146-131 (In Persian).
-Duque-Lazo, J., Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M. and. Ruíz-Gómez, F.J. 2018. Assessment of the future stability of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) afforestation under climate change scenarios in Southwest Spain, Forest Ecology and Management, 409: 444-56.
-Hamzehpour, M., Kaleili, H. and Bordbar, S.K. 2011. Preliminary study on the decay of Iranian oak trees (Q. bruntii) in Bam Kazeroun Plain, Fars Province, Iran Forest and Poplar Researches, 19( 2): 363-335 (In Persian).
-Hartmann, S., Becker, A. and King, L. 2008. Quasi-Periodicities in Chinese Precipitation Time Series. Theor. Appl. Climatology, 92: 155–163.
-Heidari Naserabadi, S. 2016. Survey of spatial-temporal dispersal pattern of Iranian oak drying using the method of remote sensing and GIS (Case Study: Basht area, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province). Master's Degree in Natural Resources Engineering - Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture, Yasouj University. Yasuj (In Persian).
-Jahanbakhsh, S. and Adalat Dost, M. 2008. Climate change in Iran (Case study: North Atlantic oscillation index as an indicator of the effects of solar activity on rainfall changes in Azerbaijan), Third Conference on Iranian Water Resources Management. Tabriz University (In Persian).
-Karami, O. 2017. Monitoring and modeling the decline of Zagros oak forests using satellite data with high spatial resolution. PhD Thesis in Natural Resources Engineering - Forest Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Sari, Sari (In Persian).
-Khosroup, N., Mirza'i, J. and Dostkami, S. 2014. Investigation of Factors Affecting Drying of Zagros Oak forests, Second National Conference on Natural Resources of Iran, Focusing on Forest Sciences, Natural Resources Faculty, Forestry Department, Kurdistan University, Kurdistan (In Persian).
-KouhSoltani, S., Al Sheikh, A.A., Gjermez Cheshmeh, B. and Mehri, S. 2018. Investigation of drying potential of Zagros oak forests using GIS, RS and Fuzzy-AHP method. EcoHydrology, 2: 725-713 (In Persian).
-López-Tirado, J. and. Hidalgo, P.J. 2016. Predictive modelling of climax oak trees in southern Spain: insights in a scenario of global change. Plant Ecology, 217: 451-63.
-Safaei Rad, R. 2014. Evidence of Holocene climate change in middle agglomeration. Master's thesis for Climatology, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran. Tehran (In Persian).
-Vacchiano, G. and Motta, R. 2015. An improved species distribution model for Scots pine and downy oak under future climate change in the NW Italian Alps. Annals of Forest Science, 72: 321-34.
-Vázquez-Quintero, G., Solís-Moreno, R., Pompa-García, M., Villarreal-Guerrero, F., Pinedo-Alvarez, C. and Pinedo-Alvarez, A. 2016. Detection and projection of forest changes by using the Markov Chain Model and cellular automata. Sustainability, 8: 1-13.
-Vessella, F., López-Tirado, J., Simeone, M.C., Bartolomeo, S. and Hidalgo, P.J. 2017. A tree species range in the face of climate change: cork oak as a study case for the Mediterranean biome. European Journal of Forest Research, 136: 555-569.