استفاده از روش‌های تجزیه‌وتحلیل بقا در ارزیابی اثرات خصوصیات فرد، توده و محیط بر زمان بقا بلندمازو در برابر بیمار ذغالی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جنگل‌شناسی و اکولوژی جنگل (پاتولوژی جنگل)، دانشکده علوم جنگل، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گلستان، ایران

2 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

3 دانشیار، گروه آمار، دانشکده آمار، دانشگاه گلستان، گلستان، ایران

چکیده

بیماری ذغالی با عاملmediterranea  Biscogniauxia یکی از بیماری­های مهم و مؤثر در خشکیدگی درختان بلوط است که در سال 1388 در استان گلستان گزارش گردید. این تحقیق باهدف ارزیابی اثرات خصوصیات درخت، توده و محیط بر زمان بقا (سالم ماندن) بلندمازو، در پارک جنگلی قرق انجام شد. بنابراین 192 اصله درخت بلندمازو با متوسط قطر برابرسینه 9/50 سانتی‏متر در پنج دوره شش‌ماهه از مهر 1392 تا مهر 1394 در این مطالعه وارد شدند. از آزمون لگ رتبه­ای و رگرسیون کاکس به ترتیب برای برآورد میانگین زمان بقای درختان و بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آن استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل از آزمون لگ رتبه­ای بیشترین (7/100 ماه) و کمترین (2/40 ماه) میانگین زمان بقا را به‏ترتیب در مرحله رویشی تیرک و پیردار برآورد کرد. همچنین درختان بلوط با فاصله کمتر از 10 و بیشتر از 200 متر از جاده به ترتیب کمترین (7/51 ماه) و بیشترین (6/109 ماه) زمان بقا را داشتند. بااین‌وجود براساس تجزیه رگرسیون کاکس، در بین متغیرهای مورد بررسی تنها متغیرهای فاصله از جاده و محدوده پراکنش برمیزان بقا درختان بلندمازو مؤثر بودند. با برآورد میزان بقای درختان و عوامل مؤثر بر آن، می­توان روش­های پیشگیری جهت مدیریت و کاهش نرخ بیماری ارائه کرد. استفاده از روش­های تجزیه‌وتحلیل بقا در اپیدمیولوژی بیماری­های درختان جنگلی، این توانایی را به کارشناسان خواهد داد تا درک بهتر و صحیح­تری از چگونگی روند بیماری­ها به دست آورند.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of survival analysis methods to assess the effects of individual characteristics, habitat and environment on survival time of oak charcoal against the charcoal disease

نویسندگان [English]

  • J. Karami 1
  • M. R. Kavosi 2
  • M. Babanezhad 3
چکیده [English]

     Charcoal disease (Biscogniauxia mediterranea) was reported in Golestan province as one of the major diseases affecting oak decline in 2011. Therefore, this study was aimed to evaluate the influence of tree characteristics, stand and site on the infection risk in oak trees in the Qoroq forest park. In this study, 192 oak trees with the average diameter of 50.9± 16.5 cm at breast height were recorded, so that the health status of the trees was evaluated in five semiannual courses from October 2013 to October 2015. Log-rank test and Cox regression analysis were used to estimate the mean survival time of the trees and the affecting factors, respectively. The Log-rank test demonstrated the highest (100.7 months) and lowest (40.2 months) mean survival time at the vegetative stage in small pole and mature trees, respectively. Oak trees at a distance of less than 10 and more than 200 meters from the road showed the lowest (51.7 months) and the highest (109.6 months) mean survival time, respectively. Nevertheless, according to the Cox regression analysis, among the variables examined only the distance from the road and distribution range had significant effects on the survival rate of oak trees. Estimation of the survival rate and the affecting factors in oak trees could be used in prevention methods to manage and decrease the charcoal disease rate particularly in Qoroq forest park. Using the survival analysis methods in epidemiological studies of the forest tree diseases, the experts will have the better and more accurate understanding on the diseases progress.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Quercus castaneifolia
  • Charcoal Disease
  • Survival analysis
  • Cox model

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فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 27 اردیبهشت 1395
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 05 مهر 1396
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 16 خرداد 1396

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