ارزیابی روند تغییرات پوشش جنگلی و تعیین مهمترین عوامل فیزیوگرافی مرتبط با تخریب جنگل‌ها در استان ایلام – مطالعه موردی: شهرستان سیروان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیئت علمی گروه علوم جنگل، دانشگاه ایلام

2 گروه علوم جنگل، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ایلام

3 گروه کارآفرینی و توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ایلام

چکیده

پایش تغییرات کاربری و تخریب جنگل یکی از مسائل مهم برای ارزیابی و کنترل در مدیریت منابع طبیعی است. به منظور بررسی روند تغییرات پوشش جنگلی و تعیین عوامل فیزیوگرافی مرتبط با تخریب جنگل در شهرستان سیروان استان ایلام، از تصاویر سنجنده MMS با قدرت تفکیک مکانی 80 متر و OLI ماهواره لندست با قدرت تفکیک مکانی 30 متر مربوط به سال‌های 1366 و 1393 استفاده شد. برای بررسی ارتباط مکانی کاهش پوشش جنگلی با عوامل اصلی فیزیوگرافی از روش آماری رگرسیون لجستیک دوگانه استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که طی 27 سال حدود 15/5910 هکتار (67/15درصد) از سطح جنگل‌های شهرستان سیروان در سال 1366 کاسته شده است. همچنین نتایج مدل‌سازی نشان داد که متغیرهای ارتفاع از سطح دربا، شیب و جهت دامنه ارتباط معنی‏داری در سطح یک درصد با میزان تخریب جنگل در منطقه مورد مطالعه داشتند، این در حالی است که مشخصه‌های فاصله از جاده و فاصله از مناطق مسکونی (روستاها) در سطح یک درصد تأثیر معنی‌داری بر میزان تخریب جنگل در منطقه مورد مطالعه نشان ندادند. ارزیابی مدل رگرسیونی برازش داده‌ شده با شاخص‌های ROC (معادل 9045/0) و Pseudo-R2 (معادل 3275/0) هم بیانگر قابلیت بالای مدل جهت توصیف تغییرات و تعیین مناطق مستعد تغییر می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of forest cover change trends and determination of the main physiographic factors on forest degradation in Ilam province (case study: Sirvan county)

نویسنده [English]

  • Ali Mahdavi 1
1 Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
چکیده [English]

Monitoring of the changes in land uses and forest degradation is an important issue in evaluation and management of the natural resources. In order to investigate the forest cover degradation trends and determination of the main environmental factors on forest degradation in Sirvan county of Ilam province, satellite images for the years 1987 and 2014 of MMS (80 m spatial resolution) and OLI (30 m spatial resolution) were used. To survey the spatial relationship of forest cover reduction with the main environmental factors, regression logistic statistics method was used. The results revealed that about 5910.15 ha of the forest cover has been reduced Sirvan county during 27 years. In addition, the results of modelling demonstrated that altitude, slope and aspect variables (α≤0.01) were the most affecting factors on forest degradation in the studied area, respectively. While distance to road and distance to villages had no significant effects (α>0.01) on forest degradation in this area. Assessment of regression model fitted with ROC (0.9045) and Pseudo-R2 (0.3275) indices indicated the ability of the model to describe the changes and to identify the areas prone to change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Degradation Modelling
  • Logistic regression
  • Forest cover changes
  • Sirvan County

مراجع

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فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 29 دی 1395
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 05 مهر 1396
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 09 شهریور 1396

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