بررسی و پیش‌بینی وضعیت خشک‌سالی در مناطق زاگرسی بر اساس شاخص‌های سنجش‌ازدور و مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو در دوره 20 ساله

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشکده منابع‌طبیعی و محیط‌زیست، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، پژوهشکده حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری سازمان تحقیقات و آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشکده منابع‌طبیعی و محیط‌زیست، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

10.22092/ijfrpr.2023.359734.1548

چکیده

خشک‌سالی در زاگرس که یکی از مهم‌ترین اکوسیستم‌های ایران می‌باشد چالشی بزرگ است. سنجش از دور در پایش و مدیریت منابع طبیعی کاربردی کم‌نظیر دارد. هدف این مطالعه بررسی و تحلیل وضعیت خشکسالی در زاگرس میانی و جنوبی براساس مدل های گردش عمومی جو و شبکه عصبی در ارتباط با شاخص های سنجش دوریNDVI ، VCI، TCI ، VHI ، DDI ، EVI ، NDWI و SAVI می باشد. برای بررسی روند خشکسالی و پیش بینی آن از تصاویر سری زمانی ماهواره مودیس در دوره زمانی 20 ساله استفاده شد. نخست شاخص های مذکور از محصولات MOD021KM سنجنده Terra طی سالهای2000 تا 2019 تولید شدند و به کمک مدل های آماری– دینامیکی MP5 تحت سناریوهای RCP 2.6، RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 طی دوره 2020 تا 2039 و شبکه عصبی و شاخص های سنجش از دوری میزان بارش برآورد شد. وضعیت خشکسالی به صورت 2 دوره، بر اساس روش SPI برای 20 سال وضعیت موجود (2019 – 2000) و بر اساس سناریوهای RCP و روش های سنجش از دور و شبکه های عصبی برای 20 سال آینده (2039 – 2020) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج حاکی از ترسالی شدید و بسیار شدید در دوره 2019 – 2000 و دوره ی 20 سال آینده در نواحی مرتفع منطقه می‌باشد. همچنین تحلیل فضایی و پیش‌بینی خشکسالی ها نشان دهنده الگوی نامنظمی در همه ی شاخص ها بوده و تنها در شاخص های NDVI و SAVI تحلیل فضایی خشکسالی ها توانسته است الگوی نسبتاً منظمی را ارائه کند

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation and forecasting of the drought situation in the Zagros region based on remote sensing indicators and general circulation models of the 20-year period

نویسندگان [English]

  • Salar Mirzapour 1
  • Mir Masoud Kheirkhah Zarkash 2
  • Zahra Azizi 3
1 PhD Student, Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate prof., Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agriculture Research Education and Extention Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant prof., Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Drought in Zagros, which is one of the most important ecosystems in Iran, is a big challenge. Remote sensing has a unique application in diagnosis, monitoring and management of natural resources. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the drought situation in the middle and southern Zagros basin based on atmospheric general circulation models and neural network in relation to remote sensing indices NDVI, VCI, TCI, VHI, DDI, EVI, NDWI and SAVI. At first the Modis satellite time series images were used in a 20-year period. First the mentioned indicators were produced from MOD021KM products of Terra sensor from 2000 to 2019. Then amount of precipitation were estimated by using of statistical-dynamic model MP5 under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and neural network and Remote sensing indicators during the period from 2020 to 2039, And then the state of droughts was investigated in 2 periods of 20 years based on the SPI method (2000-2019) and based on RCP scenarios and remote sensing methods and neural networks for the next 20 years (2021-2039). The results showed that both in the period of 2000-2019 and 2020-2039, the high areas of the studied area have and will have severe and very severe wet year. Also, the spatial analysis of droughts and remote sensing indices of the second period has depicted an irregular pattern in all indices, and only in NDVI and SAVI indices, the spatial analysis of droughts has been able to present a relatively regular pattern

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic statistical model
  • Drought
  • Atmospheric general circulation model
  • Remote sensing indicators
  • Zagros

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 17 شهریور 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 17 بهمن 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 دی 1401

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