نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشآموخته دکترای منابع طبیعی، گرایش جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، مازندران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Prediction of fire occurrences in forest areas -which are rising in recent years- through selecting appropriate method and modeling, is necessary. So far different models have been applied to evaluate the fire risk which the comparison of efficiency of the usual, accurate and new models is essential to use the best model in the future researches. The present study was conducted to evaluate the efficiency of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, correlation, and Dong model methods to provide the fire risk potential map in district three of Neka-Zalemroud forests. The reason of the use of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method is its accuracy based on previous researches; the reason of the use of correlation method is its novelty and the reason of Dong model is its usuality in the fire risk evaluation researches. In the first step, the analytic hierarchy process along with fuzzy set was used to rank and weigh the effective factors in forest fire, modeling of fire risk and provision of fire risk potential map. In the second step, correlation method between human and environmental sub-criteria and the past actual fires was used to rank and weigh the effective factors in forest fire, modeling of fire risk and provision of fire risk potential map. In the third step, Dong model was used to provide the fire risk potential map. Following the construction of fire risk potential maps using three methods, the past actual fires map was overlaid on them to validate the used methods. For this purpose, the area of the high-risk classes of fire risk potential maps in the past actual fires confine was used. Thus the area of the high-risk and very high-risk classes of each fire risk potential map in the past actual fires confine was calculated. Results showed that the high-risk areas in fire risk potential map prepared by the correlation methods, very highly accordance with the past actual fires which it can show the high validity of the model made by correlation method. In addition the high-risk areas in fire risk potential map prepared by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, highly accordance with the past actual fires which it can show the high validity of the model made by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method. The high-risk areas in fire risk potential map prepared by Dong model showed a moderate accordance with the actual fire areas. The final results of this study showed that the correlation model (with accuracy 0.92),fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model (with accuracy 0.8)and Dong model (with accuracy 0.51) have the most efficiency to predict the fire high-risk areas in the study area respectively.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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